Global Green Bond Market Amid Global Turbulence

Amid the recent turbulence in the global economy, it seems very important to continue following the global environmental course. The COVID-19 pandemic, disruptions and overhaul of global supply chains, geopolitical tensions, and energy inflation of 2022 are holding back the progressive development of the world economy, which needs financial resources to continue the energy transition and other sustainable transformations. Green bonds attracted significant funds even before the pandemic. Thus, it seems timely to assess the impact of the main factors of global turbulence on the global green bond market and, based on the available data, predict the probable direction of the development of the global green bond market. The methods of analysis include general scientific, statistical, and econometric methods based on data from the Climate Bond Initiative, the World Bank, and S&P Global—power trend, logarithm, and the least squares method. The analysis showed that the challenges of adapting green bonds to the new global environment are out of the question. During COVID-19, there was a large-scale increase in issues and interest in green bonds caused by government incentives and the global financial market trends during the pandemic. In 2022, additional force majeure and more fundamental factors, such as global inflation and changes in the direction of monetary regulation frameworks in developed countries, have been added to the need to fight global warming. They had the opposite effect. However, econometric modeling shows an upward trend for the global green bond market, at least in the short term. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

Flight-to-quality or not? Evidence from China's green bond and green equity markets during COVID-19 crisis

This study investigates the time-varying interdependence relationships between green bonds and green equity returns in China before and during the COVID-19 period. The rolling-window Copula Quantile-on-Quantile regression method has been employed to capture the dynamic dependence structure of the asset returns. The empirical results are as follows: First, the green bond-green equity correlations have increased significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic era. Second, the heterogeneous dependencies across different quantiles show the time-varying information transmission mechanism between green financial markets depending on the market conditions. Specifically, the correlations have increased around median level given pandemic shocks and an opposite correlation movement can be found in extreme quantiles, supporting the ‘flight-to-quality' effect.

What drives the performance and causality of green bond indices?

This paper empirically assesses the performance of green bond indices and the causality of that performance using a range of financial and commodity data. We present new insights from the novel application of datasets, neural networks and performance measurements. We find that green bond indices do not outperform the market when factors beyond market return are considered. We find that Brent crude oil has the most significant effect on certain indices, a finding that contrasts with other studies on green bonds. A greater sensitivity to oil prices and global green equities also evinces a negative impact on a green bond index's ability to outperform the market. For the first time, a linear causal relationship is established between Title Transfer Facility (TTF) returns and green bond index returns. Additionally, a fundamental shift in causal relationships is observed over the COVID-19 period. In this way, we contribute to the literature on sustainable green bonds and the impact of COVID-19. These insights provide more clarity to market participants for navigating the uncertainties of both the global energy transition and the postpandemic period. © 2023 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

Oil price shocks, economic policy uncertainty, and green finance: a case of China

This study investigates the long- and short-run effects of crude oil price (COP) and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on China's green bond index (GBI) using the quantile autoregressive distributed lag model. The empirical results show that COP and EPU produce a significant positive and negative influence on GBI in the long-run across most quantiles, respectively, but their short-run counterparts are opposite direction and only significant in higher quantiles. Thus, major contributions are made accordingly and shown in the following aspects. The findings emphasise the importance of understanding how COP and EPU affect China's green bond market for the first time. In addition, both the long- and short-run effects are captured, but long-run shocks primarily drive the green bond market. Finally, time- and quantile-varying analyses are adopted to explain the nexus between COP and EPU to GBI, which considers not only different states of the bond market but also events that occur in different time periods. Some detailed policies, such as a unified and effective green bond market, an early warning mechanism of oil price fluctuation, and prudent economic policy adjustments, are beneficial for stabilising the green finance market.

Effect of green bonds, oil prices, and COVID-19 on industrial CO2 emissions in the USA: Evidence from novel wavelet local multiple correlation approach

This study explores the effect of green bonds, oil prices, and the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on industrial carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. In this context, this study examines the United States of America (USA), which is the biggest economy in the world, uses weekly data between March 6, 2020 and September 30, 2022, and applies a novel wavelet local multiple correlation (WLMC) approach under time-varying and frequency-varying perspective. The novel empirical findings shows that (i) there is a strong negative (positive) co-movement between industrial CO2 emissions and green bonds in the short-run (long-run);(ii) there is a strong positive (negative) co-movement between industrial CO2 emissions and oil price in the medium-run (long-run);(iii) there is a strong negative (positive) co-movement between industrial CO2 emissions and the COVID-19 pandemic in the medium-run (long-run);(iv) the oil price is the dominant factor, whereas there are changing effect of the variables on each other at different times and frequencies;and (vi) overall, there are long-run asymmetric and dynamic correlations between industrial CO2 emissions and variables. Hence, the empirical results highlight the asymmetric, time-varying, and frequency-varying effects of green bonds, oil prices, and the COVID-19 pandemic on industrial CO2 emissions by presenting fresh and novel evidence. Moreover, the study proposes policy implications for the USA government. © The Author(s) 2023.

Safe-haven properties of green bonds for industrial sectors (GICS) in the United States: Evidence from Covid-19 pandemic and Global Financial Crisis

The Covid-19 pandemic unfolds the vulnerability of financial markets at the time of rare disasters. To hedge the mean-dependent risk, investors rely upon traditional assets such as gold;however, the tail-dependent risk, especially during market turbulence, considerably dampened the hedging effectiveness. On the contrary, green bonds emphasize sustainable investment in the long term and have become an inevitable tool to hedge against financial risks, and climate risks, and rare disasters. Thus, this study explores the hedging and safe haven aspects of the bullish market of green bonds against bearish markets of industry sectors across the United States (U.S.) over the period of 1st January 2008 to 7th May 2021, including the Global Financial Crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic. The findings of cross-quantilogram analysis disclose that green bonds reap diversification benefits during overall market conditions as well as market turmoil, hence confirm the safe-haven behavior of green bonds. Furthermore, our results disclose that the potential role of investment in green bonds can reboot the economy without affecting low-carbon transition targets. © 2023 Elsevier Ltd

The role of the COVID-19 pandemic in time-frequency connectedness between oil market shocks and green bond markets: Evidence from the wavelet-based quantile approaches.

This study contributes to the existing literature on the relationship between oil market shocks and the green bond market by investigating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on their dynamic correlation. We first decompose the oil market shocks into components using a time-frequency framework. Then, we combine wavelet decomposition and quantile coherence and causality methods to discuss changes during the COVID-19 era. We observe positive effects of both supply-driven and demand-driven oil shocks on the green bond market at most quantile levels. However, supply-driven oil price changes play a major role. The results also indicate that long-term changes have a greater impact than short-term changes on the connection between oil and green bond markets. Nevertheless, the COVID-19 pandemic changed the nature of the causal relationship, as we observed no relationship under extreme market conditions during the pandemic era. We argue that the economic and social impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic have left investors focusing on the short-term substitution between oil and green bond markets.

Religion vs ethics: hedge and safe haven properties of Sukuk and green bonds for stock markets pre- and during COVID-19

PurposeThis study aims to examine the hedge and safe-haven properties of the Sukuk and green bond for the stock markets pre- and during the COVID-19 pandemic period.Design/methodology/approachTo test the hedge and safe-haven characteristics of Sukuk and green bonds for stock markets, the study first uses the methodology proposed by Ratner and Chiu (2013). Next, the authors estimate the hedge ratios and hedge effectiveness of using Sukuk and green bonds in a portfolio with stock markets.FindingsStrong safe-haven features of ethical (green) bonds reveal that adding green bonds into the investment portfolios brings considerable diversification avenues for the investors who tend to take fewer risks in periods of economic stress and turbulence. The hedge ratio and hedge effectiveness estimates reveal that green bonds provide sufficient evidence of the hedge effectiveness for various international stocks.Practical implicationsThe study has significant implications for faith-based investors, ethical investors, policymakers and regulatory bodies. Religious investors can invest in Sukuk to relish low-risk and interest-free investments, whereas green investors can satisfy their socially responsible motives by investing in these investment streams. Policymakers can direct the businesses to include these diversifiers for portfolio and risk management.Originality/valueThe study provides novel insights in the testing hedge and safe-haven attributes of green bonds and Sukuk while using unique methodologies to identify multiple low-risk investors for investors following the uncertain COVID-19 pandemic.

The beneficial role of green bonds as a new strategic asset class: Dynamic dependencies, allocation and diversification before and during the pandemic era

The paper proposes a full comprehensive analysis of green bond diversification benefits, their co-movement with multiple market indices, and the corresponding implications for portfolio allocation. Based on a time frame of seven years, divided into four sub-periods, the co-movements of green-bond indices, i.e. Solactive Green Bond Index and Bloomberg Barclays MSCI Green Bond Index, and the stock/bond market have been described, shedding light on the connections with sectors most affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. The Solactive Green Bond Index is found to provide the greater diversification benefit of the two green-bond indices, on average during the seven years and also during the pandemic. Allocation strategies and risk performances have also been analyzed to assess the impact of green-bond indices on otherwise traditional portfolios;their diversification power is discussed by use of traditional measures and an additional behavioral approach, drawing attention to its evolution in time and its consistency in terms of diminished risks and increased returns. Portfolios constructed with the inclusion of green bonds prove preferable in terms of risk, in all periods and for all strategies, while the superiority of returns depends on the allocation strategy. © 2023 Elsevier B.V.

Dynamic relationship between green bonds and major financial asset markets from the perspective of climate change

In recent years, changes in the climate environment have caused a considerable impact on the economy and finance, especially after the signing of the Paris Agreement decided to prevent the further increase in the earth's temperature and smoothly transformed into a low-carbon society, various markets have been affected to varying degrees, and at the same time, green bonds as an emerging environmental protection tool have sprung up and become the focus of many investors and researchers. The emergence and rise of eco-friendly investment opportunities such as green bonds is bound to have an impact on other markets, but little research has been done on their dynamic correlation with the U.S. stock market, crude oil and gold markets, especially in our current period of COVID-19 tensions, it is necessary to explore the dynamics between markets and the risk aversion of green bonds to climate change. In this paper, we study the dynamic correlation between three green investment vehicles (S&P Green Bond, China Green Bond, and Climate Bond) and three major markets, and explore whether the linkage between each market will be affected by economic risks and climate change risks by adding climate risk proxy indicators and economic policy uncertainties. This is not only of guiding significance for investors who are eco-friendly to judge the effectiveness of asset allocation and hedging in investment decisions, but also has certain reference for policymakers and market participants who want to achieve green investment, which will help the market to maintain a stable and smooth transition to a low-carbon economy in the event of pressure.

Interdependence of clean energy and green markets with cryptocurrencies

The adverse effects of the high-power energy consumption by cryptocurrencies on the environment and sustainability have raised the interest of a large body of policymakers and market participants. We apply a network approach to investigate the dependency across clean energy, green markets, and cryptocurrencies from 1 January 2018 to 30 November 2021. Our results indicate that sustainable investments, particularly DJSI and ESGL, play a pivotal role in the network system during the COVID-19 crisis. We find that green bonds are the least integrated with the other financial markets, suggesting their significant role in providing diversification benefits to investors. Rolling windows estimation shows that the dependency across the examined marked increased sharply during the COVID-19 crisis, especially between March 2020 and March 2021, after which it faded and became weak and stable until the end of the sample period. Results of the centrality network are consistent with the dependency network analysis. © 2023

The Stock Performance of Green Bond Issuers During COVID-19 Pandemic: The Case of China

The green bond (GB) is a new financial product in the green finance field that has recently become a corporate social responsibility (CSR) tool for organizations. Previous studies show that high-CSR firms receive more trust from shareholders during a financial crisis. This paper aims to assess the stock performance of publicly listed Chinese companies that issued GBs during the COVID-19 pandemic. The bond sample covers 2016–2019 and consists of 67 listed issuers. The paper uses the event study method based on the market and Fama-French (1993) three-factor models. Our results show that GB issuers exhibited significantly positive cumulative abnormal stock returns on the official announcement dates of the COVID-19 outbreak. The positive cumulative abnormal returns are mainly driven by non-financial GB issuers rather than financial GB issuers. The results reflect the attitudes of investors toward GB-issuing companies primarily in the context of the crisis and contribute to the development of green finance policies.

Green bonds' liquidity in COVID-19 and low carbon investments in China: A stochastic trend analysis.

Central banks and regulators increasingly consider climate-related financial risks (CRFR) relevant to their responsibilities for maintaining financial stability and using daily data from 2016 to 2021 for China. Specifically, we used the S&P Green Bond Price Index, the Solactive Global Solar Price Index, the Solactive Global Wind Price Index, and the S&P Global Clean Energy and Carbon Price Index as our data set. We use the TVP-VAR method to probe return spillovers and interconnectedness. We test several portfolio strategies, including the minimum variance portfolio, the minimum correlation portfolio, and the more recent minimum connectedness portfolio. However, the evolving policy structure for dealing with CRFR has generally focused on market-based solutions that attempt to address perceived data gaps that preclude the appropriate pricing of CRFR, even though CRFR is thought to have certain distinctive features. Disclosure and openness fall within this category. We propose limiting the approach's influence since CRFR is characterized by extreme attainability. A 'precautionary' financial policy option is presented as an alternative, providing a conceptual foundation for justifying more aggressive financial policy intervention in the present to better cope with these long-term dangers.

Do oil shocks affect the green bond market?

This study examines the predictive power of oil shocks for the green bond markets. In line with this aim, we investigated the extent to which oil shocks could be used to accurately make in- and out-of-sample forecasts for green bond returns. Three striking findings emanated from our results: First, the three types of oil shock are reliable predictors for green bond indices. Second, the performances of the predictive models were consistent across the different forecasting horizons (i.e. H = 1 to H = 24). Third, our findings were sensitive to classifying the dataset into pre-COVID and COVID eras. For instance, the results confirmed that the predictive power of oil shocks declined during the crisis period. We also discuss some policy implications of this study's findings. © 2022 The Author(s)

Asymmetric relationship between green bonds and Sukuk markets: The role of global risk factors

This study investigates the asymmetric connectedness and spillover effects between two ethical fixed-income assets (Sukuk and green bonds) with regard to global risk factors using a sample of 15 Sukuk markets and green bond indices. This complex network allows us to examine the extreme risk spillover and interlinkages across green bonds and Sukuk under different market conditions, captures sudden upward changes in the total and net spillover indices and hence, serves as an alerting system for any impending crisis in relation to global risk factors. Empirical results indicate a persistency feature in the connectedness between Hong Kong and Malaysian, and UK and Nigerian Sukuk markets under different market conditions. More importantly, Sukuk and green bond markets are not largely affected by global risk factors in the middle, upper and lower quantiles. Findings from the portfolio analysis show that Sukuk is effective in hedging the risks of green bonds and global factors. These results of potential diversification characteristics and risk reduction benefits are robust and hold during the Covid-19 pandemic period. Finally, our findings are of paramount importance for investors who are interested in ethical investments as well as policymakers in order to maintain a stable and sound financial system. © 2022 The Author(s)

The extreme return connectedness between Sukuk and green bonds and their determinants and consequences for investors

This study aimed to investigate the return connectedness between Sukuk and green bonds at the middle, left and right tail using the new quantile-based connectivity methodology from Ando et al. (2018). We find that the average level of connectedness estimated at the mean/median is lower than that estimated at the left and right quantiles. Therefore, return connectedness between Sukuk and green links is higher in the left and right tails, indicating that the application of the mean-based connectivity measure is inappropriate. Next, we show that the connectedness of returns varies over time but varies less in the tails. In particular, the dynamic connectivity analysis indicates that the COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted the Sukuk and green bond markets. The Return connectedness driver's analysis shows the importance of macroeco-nomic conditions, particularly in the middle and lower quintiles. The US dollar bodes well positively for both bears and bulls, while uncertainty in equity markets amplifies return spillovers in the lower quintile. Moreover, the weak return spillovers between Sukuk and green bonds in-dicates that there is indeed an opportunity for optimal asset allocation. The highest hedging ef-ficiency can be achieved by taking short positions in US Green Bonds.

Do green bonds offer a diversification opportunity during COVID-19?-an empirical evidence from energy, crypto, and carbon markets.

The present study is a novel attempt to unravel the connectedness of the green bond with energy, crypto, and carbon markets using the S&P green bond index (RSPGB). We consider MAC global solar energy index (RMGS) and ISE global wind energy index (RIGW) as proxies of the energy market and use bitcoin and the European energy exchange carbon index (REEX) for the cryptocurrency and carbon market. Employing the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012), Baruník and Krehlík (2018), and wavelet coherence econometric techniques, we find that the energy market (RMGS) has the highest connectedness derived from other asset classes, and bitcoin (RBTC) has the least connectedness. Concurrently, we find that the risk transmission is heterogeneous in different scales as the short period has less connectedness than the medium and long run. We conclude that the overall diversification opportunity among green bonds, energy stock, bitcoin, and the carbon market is more in the short-run than in the medium and long-run. In summary, our findings on the green bond market will provide investors, portfolio managers, and policymakers with critical insight into ensuring a sustainable financial market.

The Development of Green Bond in Developing Countries: Insights from Southeast Asia Market Participants.

Given the increasing importance of green bond as the main funding source for the Sustainable Development Goals, the green bond is an emerging concept in the region of Southeast Asia. In addition, the concurrent Covid-19 pandemic has caused disruption to the development of green bond around the world. This research explores the current development status of the green bond in Southeast Asian countries. A total of thirty-two semi-structured interviews were held with capital market participants in Southeast Asian countries. The results highlight barriers, opportunities, and regulation difficulties, and expected growth for the development of the green bond market. This research is concluded by indicating several propositions that can be tested in the future to generalize the findings from this work. We thus extend the knowledge of green bond in the financial markets of Southeast Asian countries, which also delivers implications for practitioners and policy-makers regarding the development of green bond in Southeast Asian countries.

Compte tenu de l'importance croissante de l'obligation verte en tant que principal attribut financier des objectifs de développement durable (ODD), l'obligation verte est un concept émergent dans la région de l'Asie du Sud-Est. En outre, la pandémie concomitante de Covid-19 a perturbé le développement des obligations vertes dans le monde. Cette étude explore l'état actuel du développement de l'obligation verte dans les pays d'Asie du Sud-Est. Au total, trente-deux entretiens semi-directifs ont été menés avec des acteurs du marché des capitaux dans les pays d'Asie du Sud-Est. Les résultats mettent en évidence les obstacles, les opportunités et les difficultés de réglementation, ainsi que la croissance attendue pour le développement du marché des obligations vertes. Dans sa conclusion, cette étude émet plusieurs propositions qui peuvent être testées à l'avenir pour généraliser les résultats de ce travail. Nous étoffons ainsi la connaissance concernant les obligations vertes sur les marchés financiers des pays d'Asie du Sud-Est, ce qui comporte également des implications pour les praticien·ne·s et les décisionnaires en ce qui concerne le développement des obligations vertes dans les pays d'Asie du Sud-Est.

Do the green bonds overreact to the COVID-19 pandemic?

This paper explores the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global green bond and conventional assets, including commodity, treasury, stock and clean energy markets, using Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) and Baruník and Krehlík, 2018b spillover framework. The results show that spillover transmitted from COVID-19 is relatively strong over a medium- and long-term horizon, and the spillover effects sharply increased when the pandemic became severe. Furthermore, green bonds are most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by the treasury, while the other conventional assets are only slightly affected. Additionally, our findings also contain a low-risk portfolio during COVID-19 pandemic.

Extreme spillover effect of COVID-19 pandemic-related news and cryptocurrencies on green bond markets: A quantile connectedness analysis.

We provide the first empirical study on the role of panic and stress related to the COVID-19 pandemic, including six uncertainties and the four most traded cryptocurrencies, on three green bond market volatilities. Based on daily data covering the period from January 1, 2020 to January 31, 2022, we combine Diebold and Yilmaz's (2012, 2014) time domain spillover approach and Ando et al.'s (2022) quantile regression framework to investigate the time-frequency spillover connectedness among markets and measure the direction and intensity of the net transmission effect under extreme negative and positive event conditions, and normal states. We further provide novel insights into the green finance literature by examining sensitivity to quantile analysis of the net transfer mechanism between green bonds, cryptocurrencies, and pandemic uncertainty. Regarding the network connectedness analysis, the results reveal strong net information spillover transmission among markets under the bearish market. In extremely negative event circumstances, the MSCI Euro green bond acts as the leading net shock receiver in the system, whereas COVID-19 fake news appears as the largest net shock contributor, followed by BTC. According to sensitivity to quantile analysis, the net dynamic shock transfer mechanism is time-varying and quantile-dependent. Overall, our work uncovers crucial implications for investors and policymakers.